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East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse
Article

East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse

And How It Will Reshape World Politics

Nicholas Eberstadt
Foreign Affairs, 2024
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In the years spanning 2020–2050, according to United Nations experts, East Asian countries will experience consequential population declines. This loss of human capital will have impacts on economic opportunity, growth, societal cohesion, military might, and civic stability throughout the region. Political economist Nicholas Eberstadt examines the East Asian demographic narrative and its potential reconfigurations of the world’s socioeconomic and geopolitical power structures. Business leaders and investors will find this an insightful and informative analysis.

Summary

East Asian countries will experience dramatic population declines in the coming decades.

The East Asian region — China, Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan — faces a downward population trajectory and an aging citizenry over the years from 2020 to 2050. Forecasters project that China’s population will decline by 8%; Japan’s, by 18%; South Korea’s, by 12%; and Taiwan’s, by 8%. By comparison, the United States’ population will increase by 12%.

These declines will have enormous impacts on the region in terms of economic growth, military capability, political power, societal health, and human capital potential.

Because their fertility rates are below their replacement rates, East Asian nations will be unable to mitigate population contraction...

About the Author

Nicholas Eberstadt is the Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.

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