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The Global Trade Slowdown
Report

The Global Trade Slowdown

Cyclical or Structural?

Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta
IMF, 2015
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7

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The slowdown in global trade has left economists and others wondering about the future implications of the trend, and whether it is the result of short-term cyclical forces or longer-term structural factors. This study explores the reasons behind the slowdown and what it could mean for growth in the future. getAbstract recommends this academic report to economists and others interested in the implications of this trend.

Summary

Between 1987 and 2007, world trade grew at an average rate of 7.1% per year. In 2012 and 2013, however, it grew by less than 3%, even after bouncing back from historic lows in 2010. A major reason behind this global trade slowdown is the changing relationship between growth in global trade and in income since the 1970s. While long-term trade elasticity climbed sharply in the 1990s, signaling a strong connection between global trade and income, it fell significantly in the 2000s. The downturn occurred well before the financial crisis and became more pronounced afterward. Between 2001 and 2007, a 1% uptick in income translated into a 1.5...

About the Authors

Cristina Constantinescu and Michele Ruta are economists at the International Monetary Fund, while Aaditya Mattoo is a research manager at the World Bank.

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