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Third Time Unlucky
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Third Time Unlucky

Recession in 2014?

John M. Makin
AEI, 2013
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6

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Recommendation

The Fed has been lucky twice, but fortune won’t smile a third time. Recession will recur in 2014 with tax and benefit cuts the only way out. These oft-repeated neo-conservative maxims will most likely not lead the Fed to change its policy. Economist John Makin asserts that the financial sector should undergo deregulation and – post-Lehman collapse – that offends many. Still, getAbstract recommends Makin’s thoughtful take on business cycles.

Take-Aways

  • The US economy has been in recovery for four years, but it may experience a recession in early 2014.
  • The US economy is returning to a business cycle – characterized by shorter periods of growth and longer periods of relapse – that held sway from 1854 to 2009.
  • The notion that the US outgrew normal business cycle rhythms during the 1991 to 2001 “Great Moderation” is fallacious.

About the Author

John H. Makin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

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