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China’s Slowdown
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China’s Slowdown

When the Dragon Catches the Flu, Europe Sneezes

Mikkel Barslund and Cinzia Alcidi
CEPS, 2015
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Editorial Rating

7

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Scientific
  • Visionary

Recommendation

China’s economy is slowing to a more sustainable level of growth as it transitions from its dependence on export and investment to a greater focus on consumer goods and services. But other variables, such as commodity prices, will likely contribute to the speed of the decline, which will influence, to varying degrees, economic growth prospects in Europe and in other regions around the world. This concise commentary from researchers Mikkel Barslund and Cinzia Alcidi of the Centre for European Policy Studies, though at times difficult to parse, nonetheless outlines the projected impacts of Chinese economic deceleration on members of the European Union. getAbstract recommends this scholarly piece to executives and investors for its relevance to the global economic outlook in 2016.

Summary

China is shifting from a domestic investment-driven economy to a consumer-led economy on its way to achieving more manageable growth. The potential effects of this rebalancing are global, both economically and politically, and will depend on how rapidly the transition takes place.

In 2013, China produced 13% of the world’s GDP, about half the share of the entire European Union. Thus, the scale of the ripple effects within the EU of China’s deceleration should be relatively muted. A decline to 6% growth in China...

About the Authors

Mikkel Barslund and Cinzia Alcidi are researchers at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a leading European think tank.

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