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The Global Trade Slowdown
Report

The Global Trade Slowdown

Cyclical or Structural?

IMF, 2015


Editorial Rating

7

Qualities

  • Innovative
  • Overview
  • Background

Recommendation

The slowdown in global trade has left economists and others wondering about the future implications of the trend, and whether it is the result of short-term cyclical forces or longer-term structural factors. This study explores the reasons behind the slowdown and what it could mean for growth in the future. getAbstract recommends this academic report to economists and others interested in the implications of this trend.

Take-Aways

  • Between 1987 and 2007, world trade grew at an average rate of 7.1% per year. In 2012 and 2013, however, it grew by less than 3%, even after bouncing back from historic lows in 2010.
  • The changing relationship between growth in global trade and in income since the 1970s is a major reason behind the trade slowdown.
  • A pickup in GDP growth may not be sufficient to return global trade to its formerly vibrant levels of the 1990s.

About the Authors

Cristina Constantinescu and Michele Ruta are economists at the International Monetary Fund, while Aaditya Mattoo is a research manager at the World Bank.