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The Great Demographic Reversal
Book

The Great Demographic Reversal

Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival

Palgrave Macmillan, 2020 more...


Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Controversial
  • Analytical
  • For Experts

Recommendation

The two biggest economic phenomena of the last few decades have arguably been the rise of China and persistently low inflation and interest rates. Economists Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan convincingly assert that these two developments are strongly linked. They say that the economic impact of demographics, especially China’s, is underappreciated, while the potency of monetary policy is overestimated. In this radical and incisive book, the authors claim that, as demographic and globalization pressures shift and as China’s economic strategies change, inflation will return with a vengeance.

Take-Aways

  • China’s economic ascent kept inflation and interest rates low.
  • The “demographic sweet spot” is coming to an end, so inflation will return.
  • As the proportion of the elderly rises, the funds and labor required to look after them will increase substantially.

About the Authors

Charles Goodhart has served at the Bank of England and as a consultant to Morgan Stanley. Manoj Pradhan, previously a managing director at Morgan Stanley, is the founder of a macroeconomic research firm.