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The Long Economic Hangover of Pandemics
Article

The Long Economic Hangover of Pandemics

History shows COVID-19’s economic fallout may be with us for decades

IMF, 2020


Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Eye Opening
  • Hot Topic

Recommendation

While the global economy will revert to some sort of normal as the effects of COVID-19 recede, the damage done will nonetheless cast a pall for years to come. In this sobering article, economists Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh and Alan M. Taylor look back at nearly seven hundred years of pandemics in Europe ​​​​​​and find that the crises’ financial effects persisted long after their health impacts subsided. While current demographic and medical circumstances differ from those in the past, the economic aftermath of COVID-19 may well be long and arduous.

Take-Aways

  • COVID-19 will reshape the macroeconomic landscape for decades.
  • Pandemics exert a lasting influence on interest rates.
  • Circumstances today could mitigate a long-term decline in the natural rate of interest.

About the Authors

Òscar Jordà, a senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, is an economics professor at the University of California, Davis, where Sanjay R. Singh is an assistant professor of economics and Alan M. Taylor is a professor of economics and finance.