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The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine

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The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine

A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations

Foreign Affairs,

5 min read
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Diplomacy could have ended the Ukraine war in its early days.

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Just weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, officials from Ukraine, Russia, and other nations sought to end the combat through diplomatic channels. With battles raging, the negotiators reached a tentative deal, but the peace accord never came to fruition. International policy experts Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko investigate the timeline, participants, deal elements, and nuances surrounding the negotiations and how close the parties came to an agreement. This illuminating article explores why the process, while ultimately ineffective, could play a foundational role in future peace talks.

Summary

In the first few weeks of the Russia–Ukraine war, officials from both countries met to reach a negotiated settlement to end the fighting.

Geopolitics changed overnight when Russia launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The goal for Russia was simple: Seize the capital city of Kyiv and claim Ukraine as its territory. Russian president Vladimir Putin believed this would be relatively straightforward, given Russia’s military strength, but, as of spring 2024, the war continues and the death toll mounts on both sides.

The effort to overtake Kyiv in the early days of the invasion proved far more difficult than Putin believed it would be, and so he considered a negotiated settlement. The parties, including Russia, Ukraine, and European...

About the Authors

Senior political scientist Samuel Charap is the Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at the RAND Corporation. Sergey Radchenko is the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Europe.

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