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Third Millennium Thinking
Book

Third Millennium Thinking

Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense

Saul Perlmutter, John Campbell and Robert MacCoun
Little, Brown Spark, 2024
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Editorial Rating

9

Qualities

  • Scientific
  • Applicable
  • Eye Opening

Recommendation

Due to the internet, vast amounts of information – much of it specialized and of dubious quality – is so readily available that few people can determine what’s relevant and meaningful. Physics Nobel Laureate Saul Perlmutter, philosopher John Campbell, and social psychologist Robert MacCoun explain how to use tools and quantitative methodologies from the natural and social sciences to navigate the information avalanche. Their book, which began as material for a class at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a template for understanding a confusing world. It can help you make better, more strategic decisions at work and in your private life.

Summary

People often rely on expert opinions to make consequential decisions.

Available information swamps you online. For example, one archive of websites contains nearly a trillion pages of digital content, and that’s just the material dating back to 1996. Online digital content at this dizzying scale includes nearly every topic – from fresh, specialized technical information to outdated scientific and medical data – as well as malicious misinformation. Facing this scattered, often inconsistent sea of information makes it challenging to find reliable, relevant, and useful data – especially when you need information to help you make a difficult or urgent decision.

Suppose, for instance, you undergo a dramatic, unexpected health episode. You black out, collapse, and wake up in a mediocre local hospital. The on-duty neurologist thinks you have a brain bleed and might need risky emergency surgery. But the surgeon is not a world expert, and surgery might make your condition worse – or lead to your death. How do you decide what to do?

Since you have no neurological training, you must find an expert in neuroscience whom you can...

About the Authors

Saul Perlmutter won the 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics. He is professor of physics at the University of California at Berkeley, where John Campbell is a professor of philosophy. Robert MacCoun is a professor of law at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

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