What the Shift to Zero-Emission Vehicles Means for Commercial Transportation

Regulatory and economic forces will hasten an emission-free future for commercial transportation.

First, the COVID-19 pandemic, then, the semiconductor shortage. It’s been a wild ride for commercial vehicle supply and demand. The industry may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025, but projections suggest that by 2030, 3.3 million units will sell globally each year. China will be a major market, with sales of 1.1 million, followed by the United States at 500,000 and Europe at 400,000. The market will change markedly in the next five or 10 years, however, mostly because it will swerve toward an emissions-free future.

If you manage a fleet or manufacture medium and heavy-duty vehicles, you’ve got a challenge ahead of you. You’ll have to invest in emission-free technology while also maintaining profits. The emissions-free future will be driven by regulatory demands, like 2019’s European Green Deal, and by economic concerns. With battery prices coming down, the total cost of electric...