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Why So Many COVID Predictions Were Wrong

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Why So Many COVID Predictions Were Wrong

The eviction tsunami never happened. Neither did the “she-cession.” Here are four theories for the failed economic forecasting of the pandemic era.

The Atlantic,

5 min read
3 take-aways
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What's inside?

Flawed analyses led to wrong predictions about COVID-19’s economic consequences. 

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Editorial Rating

7

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Recommendation

The onset of COVID-19 in 2020 produced a flood of worst-case economic forecasts: Evictions would mushroom, women would leave the workplace en masse, local government treasuries would empty and the housing market would screech to a halt. But while the worst never happened, being fortunately wrong does not make everything right, according to this intriguing article by journalist Jerusalem Demsas. She outlines how information biases and a mountain of data emerging from a constantly evolving pandemic led to muddied interpretations, glaring inaccuracies, skepticism and bad policies.

Summary

The US economy weathered the COVID-19 pandemic well, despite dire prognostications.

The pandemic recession was remarkably short, lasting only for March and April 2020, and the US economy fared better than many had predicted: By year-end 2021, the housing market had roared back, eviction filings in most places were down, women had rejoined the workforce, and state and local government coffers had not been depleted. 

At its outset, COVID-19 looked set to inflict lasting economic damage. Yet most forecasts turned out to be flat wrong.

Prediction errors arose from four sources.

Four reasons explain the flawed predictions:

  1. The past was not prologue – Many observers based their dire economic forecasts...

About the Author

Jerusalem Demsas is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

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