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Scenarios for the future of the EU-Turkey relationship
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Scenarios for the future of the EU-Turkey relationship

Michael Leigh
GIS, 2017
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In the wake of the recently attempted coup, with its government actively eroding checks and balances, censoring the press and arresting political opponents, why is the European Union still considering extending membership to Turkey? According to political scientist Michael Leigh of the German Marshall Fund think tank, vested interests in maintaining a connection with Turkey may keep the EU from breaking off accession talks with the embattled nation, but the future of EU-Turkish relations remains a far from settled prospect.

Take-Aways

  • The European Union requires that its member countries demonstrate commitment to human rights, rule of law and democracy. Present Turkish policies violate these values.
  • The EU continues to consider Turkish membership largely because of economic ties and Turkey’s central role in the EU’s immigration and security policy.  
  • Turkey-EU talks could fail entirely if both sides refuse to make concessions: Turkey, to EU core principles, and the EU, to Turkish demands for freer trade and visa controls.

About the Author

Michael Leigh is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank, and visiting scholar at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

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