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The ‘Unknown Knowns’ of the Global Gas Market
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The ‘Unknown Knowns’ of the Global Gas Market

Paolo Natali
CEPS, 2014
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Editorial Rating

9

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Innovative
  • Overview

Recommendation

The behavior of global energy markets is often a harbinger of economic well-being or malaise. So the ability of policy makers and industry players to infer the “unknown knowns” that could signal significant paradigm shifts is critical. The discovery and exploitation of shale gas opportunities would seem to bear this phenomenon out. Energy expert Paolo Natali has written a thoughtful and perceptive report on the future direction of the global gas market for industry analysts, but getAbstract considers his work’s cogent insights a worthwhile read also for government officials and business executives seeking a greater understanding of the dynamics of energy markets.

Summary

The rapid pace of global economic change makes forecasting trends in energy markets difficult. A conceptual framework that recognizes the existence of “things that we don’t know we know” may hold important predictive power. Such “unknown knowns,” as well as “normal accidents” – phenomena that are likely though not easily foreseeable – can underpin watershed events in the energy industry that will drive its evolution. The unknown knowns in today’s global gas market point to some future developments:

  • “The weight of natural gas in the electricity mix will grow” – Natural gas...

About the Author

Paolo Natali, a strategy advisor at Statoil, teaches at the Paris School of International Affairs.

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