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2018 Global Outlook: Four dangerous dynamics in the Middle East
Article

2018 Global Outlook: Four dangerous dynamics in the Middle East

GIS, 2018

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Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Visionary
  • Background

Recommendation

Middle Eastern politics are notoriously complex and unpredictable. This holds especially true in 2018, as domestic unrest, shifting alliances, armed bloodshed and foreign meddling redefine the dynamics in nations such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Strategic risk analyst and investment adviser Bernard Siman identifies four regional trends he thinks will prove most consequential in the near term. Based on these trends, he outlines several future-looking scenarios in a report written for the Lichtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS). 

Take-Aways

  • The probability of armed conflict in the Middle East, in the near term, seems very high.
  • Iran’s increased military presence along Syria’s border with Israel heightens the risk of an Iranian-Israeli confrontation in the Golan Heights, or an Israeli strike on Iran itself.
  • Iran’s meddling in Iraqi domestic politics has triggered anti-Iran backlash and could prompt US intervention, increasing the probability of renewed civil conflict in Iraq. 

About the Author

Bernard Siman is a strategic risk analyst advising investors and insurance operators from the Gulf, Japan and Europe. 


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