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Off Its Pinnacle
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Off Its Pinnacle

Is the United States Entering a Period of Sustained Low Economic Growth?

Robert J. Gordon
Finance & Development , 2016
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Recommendation

With the US economy in a state of sluggish growth since the 2007–2009 recession, the prospects for future advances raise much speculation. In this revealing article, Professor Robert J. Gordon offers an informed assessment of the factors that create high growth in the economy. He argues that past technology innovations had a greater impact on productivity than more recent changes have had today. While Gordon does expect emerging technologies such as robotics to aid future growth, he is pessimistic that strong productivity results will return before 2040. getAbstract recommends this insightful perspective to business executives, economists, policy makers and investors.

Take-Aways

  • During the 1920–1970 period, American productivity jumped 2.8% per year, as people harnessed innovations, such as electricity and plastics, across many industries and throughout society.
  • Total factor productivity measures the impact of innovation on the economy.
  • The third industrial revolution of digital technology innovation, beginning around 1970, has had a narrower scope of impact, with improvements accruing mainly in the entertainment, communication and information processing spheres.

About the Author

Robert J. Gordon is a professor of social sciences at Northwestern University.

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