Turn Down the Heat
Report

Turn Down the Heat

Confronting the New Climate Normal

World Bank Group
World Bank, 2014
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Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Comprehensive
  • Scientific
  • Overview

Recommendation

Compiling and comparing historic climate data on a global level is a huge task, but this extensive World Bank report on climate change – filled with narratives, charts, graphs and tables from expert contributors worldwide – does an admirable job of organizing massive amounts of information. This technical analysis presents various scenarios of how temperature increases – and their impact on resources, land, oceans and populations – could affect three specific regions of the globe: Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe and Central Asia. The study also objectively states that the scientific community must conduct more research to do a better job of quantifying its long-range forecasts. Nonetheless, despite naysayers, this report states that climate change is a scientific reality and an impending crisis. While always politically neutral, getAbstract recommends this timely, sobering study to those looking for solid, reliable information on climate change.

Summary

The Heat Is On

Temperatures worldwide are rising. Studies indicate that today’s temperatures, already 0.8ºC [1.4ºF] above preindustrial levels, are on course to be 1.5ºC higher than those levels by the middle of this century. Historic temperature records “show that the 20-year average of global-mean, near-surface air temperature in 1986–2005 was about 0.6°C higher than the average over 1851–1879.” However, significant year-to-year differences emerge from the data. If warming continues without mitigation, the risk of temperatures rising 4ºC above preindustrial levels by 2100 is 40%; the likelihood of temperatures climbing 5ºC by that time is 10%.

Weather extremes have accompanied global warming. Today’s world has already seen more heat waves, greater precipitation, more severe droughts and a higher share of “tropical North Atlantic cyclone activity.” Continuously intensifying warming would have serious future consequences, including:

  • “Highly unusual and unprecedented heat extremes” – A temperature rise to 4ºC above preindustrial levels would mean unprecedented heat extremes. More frequent, intense heat waves would be 80% more likely, and would be more...

About the Author

The World Bank provides financial and technical assistance to developing countries.

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