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Is China Fudging its Figures?
Report

Is China Fudging its Figures?

Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark M. Spiegel
FRBSF, 2015
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Editorial Rating

7

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  • Innovative

Recommendation

All eyes are on the Chinese economy because of its slowdown and concerns that its problems will extend to the rest of the world. To understand China’s economic situation, you need robust data. But how reliable is government-issued information, and is it a good gauge of the economy’s performance? Economists John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark M. Spiegel explore this topical subject, and while they don’t find clear evidence of manipulation, they note that even Chinese authorities don’t put much stock in official GDP reports. getAbstract recommends this illuminating study to economists, investors and China watchers for its insights on the real measures of economic activity in China.

Summary

One way of taking stock of the Chinese economy’s health is by analyzing government-issued GDP figures. Yet the fast pace of China’s growth and changes in its economy have raised concerns that Chinese authorities might not be reporting economic data accurately. In addition, local governments may be altering information to show quota achievements. Even some highly placed Chinese officials have noted their distrust of GDP statistics.

Input from China’s three major trading partners – the United States, the euro zone and Japan – on their exports...

About the Authors

John Fernald and Mark M. Spiegel are economists with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Eric Hsu is a PhD candidate in economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

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