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A World Shaped by Supply
Report

A World Shaped by Supply

Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin and Alex Brazier
BlackRock, 2022
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Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Overview
  • Hot Topic

Recommendation

Consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation levels not seen in decades. Distressed global supply chains, green energy shifts and changing demographics, rather than traditional demand-side imbalances, are the culprits in these price surges, and BlackRock professionals Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin and Alex Brazier argue that supply-driven inflationary pressures are here to stay. Investors and executives concerned with the inflation threat will find some valuable insights in this timely report.

Summary

Inflation today is tied far more to supply factors than demand determinants.

Mismatches in supply and demand are raising costs and prices in some market segments. Supply curtailments are pushing inflation in the United States to levels not seen since 1982. And while the price temperature is rising, the American economy is operating below its potential GDP.

The COVID-19 shutdowns of 2020 and 2021 are at the center of the supply disruption. When economies did reopen and normalize, supply chains and production could not ramp up accordingly. Consumers opted to buy more products than services; inflation in “core goods” vastly outpaces...

About the Authors

Elga Bartsch runs macroresearch at the BlackRock Investment Institute, which Jean Boivin leads. Alex Brazier is the Institute’s deputy head.

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