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Global Economic Outlook 2021: Europe

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Global Economic Outlook 2021: Europe

Uncertainty Lingers in 2021, Slow Growth Returns for the Long Term

The Conference Board,

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Prospects for the European economy remain cloudy.

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7

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Recommendation

Europe faces an unsettled future as it emerges from the rubble of the coronavirus. While its economies have endured the pandemic in different ways and with diverse outcomes, ambiguity will cloud the region’s and the United Kingdom’s economic prospects through the end of 2021. The Conference Board outlines its prognostications regarding consumer behavior, monetary policy, sector capacity and economic activity in this astute report.

Summary

The euro zone and the United Kingdom are not likely to see pre-COVID levels of economic activity before the end of 2021.

Against the backdrop of a forecasted 8.4% drop in the euro area’s 2020 GDP, Europe’s future economic prospects hinge on controlling the coronavirus pandemic. Supply and demand constraints, in the form of lower consumer confidence or more government-imposed lockdowns, could swing outcomes substantially. Well-managed disease containment could facilitate a 2021 GDP recovery growth rate of 6.3%, but a loss of control will cap the rebound at 3.2%.

It is unclear whether the unprecedented NextGenerationEU...

About the Author

The Conference Board is a nonprofit business research group that boasts more than 1,000 corporations as its members.

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