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Older and Smaller
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Older and Smaller

Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak and Mauricio Soto
Finance & Development , 2016
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Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Innovative

Recommendation

As more people live longer and fewer people have babies, the world’s population will shrink and become older. International Monetary Fund economists Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak and Mauricio Soto examine the disturbing implications of this trend. While several previous studies have explored the financial consequences of aging populations on various countries by 2050, this article provides a valuable look at the problem across 100 nations by 2100, when the world will face the “full effects of the demographic transitions.” getAbstract recommends this eye-opening report to economists, government officials and business executives.

Take-Aways

  • The world’s population will stop growing at the end of the 21st century and begin to decrease, while the ratio of older to younger people will triple.
  • In many developed economies, age-related spending will account for one-quarter or more of GDP by 2100; in the United States, it could reach 32%.
  • In less-developed nations, age-related spending could increase to 16% of GDP, with large variations among countries.

About the Authors

Benedict Clements is a division chief at the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department, where Kamil Dybczak and Mauricio Soto are economists.

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