Outrageous Fortunes

A Daunting Dozen

Twelve overarching developments seem likely to affect the world economy in the future:

1. “China Will Get Richer, and Then It Will Get Poorer Again”

Despite some recent setbacks, China’s economic growth has been formidable. Some studies predict that China will have the world’s largest economy by 2041. Yet a number of factors indicate that such projections are too optimistic. China’s current business climate is far from hospitable. According to the World Bank, it ranks 151st among 181 countries in ease of doing business, in part because entrepreneurs must meet onerous financial and legal requirements. The Chinese culture values the collective good over individualism and seniority over new ideas. Laws and education emphasize tradition, while a lack of transparency, coupled with corruption, compounds these issues. The demographic results of China’s one-child policy will make it difficult for its working-age population to support older citizens. While China prospers in the short term by appropriating technology or techniques from abroad, longer-term factors suggest it may have only a few decades of rapid growth left, stabilizing by 2050 and falling...