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Smarter COVID-19 Decision-Making

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Smarter COVID-19 Decision-Making

How to apply sound principles from decision science to your own life

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As the world panics over the COVID-19 pandemic, how can you remain rational and make the right decisions?

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Panic, fear, uncertainty – as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, these emotions can trigger a string of irrational decision-making. Data scientist Cassie Kozyrkov offers a more level-headed approach. As the head of decision intelligence at Google, she offers a systematic blueprint to help you reach rational decisions as you respond to the crisis. While the information is a tad simple for true “data nerds,” concerned laypeople will rest easier having a framework to help inform virus-related decisions moving forward.

Summary

When reaching decisions – those related to COVID-19 or otherwise – avoid irrational thinking.

Two cognitive fallacies – confirmation bias (a tendency to believe only information that substantiates your existing beliefs) and ambiguity aversion (a preference for known risks over unknown risks) – can entice you to make uninformed assumptions about the pandemic and then gather data that fit those views. To strengthen your ability to reason through problems, consider the litany of actions you could take, and develop standards for making decisions before you collect information. Some suggestions – from a data expert rather than a physician – may help you make better judgment calls during the COVID-19 crisis.

Let your personal ethics inform your goals.

Home in on the principles and values you cherish most. Ascertain whom you believe you have a responsibility to protect – yourself, your family, your friends, the broader community or the world.

Once you’ve figured out what you consider to be right and wrong, you’ll have a better perspective from which to make judgments. For example...

About the Author

Cassie Kozyrkov is Google’s head of decision intelligence. She is an expert in data and decision-making.

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