The Art of the Long View

A Tool for All Futures: Scenarios

The future is so uncertain that it makes people anxious. They don’t know what decisions to make now. To equip yourself to make informed choices in this continually shifting world, use scenarios. A scenario isn’t a prediction. No one can know the future with certainty, and if you think you do, you’re sure to be wrong. That is why the process of “scenario planning” calls for developing challenging stories about a number of possible futures. First, gather the best data available from a broad range of sources. Include information and perspectives that are just appearing on the horizon and on the fringes of society. Use the data to generate several divergent yet plausible scenarios, each incorporating different assumptions about the nature of the changes your organization will face. This lets you examine which futures might unfold and anticipate and rehearse possible responses.

Whether you’re starting a small business or running a multinational company, you need to ask the same kinds of questions about possible futures that may affect you. Some people will be better at building scenarios than others, at least at the start, but everyone ...