The Long Emergency

Sleepwalking into Oblivion

Americans need a reality check. Although they should focus on terrorism and the war in Iraq, they face an even larger looming problem: the end of cheap oil and the impending energy crisis. The lack of oil will disrupt the suburban way of life and generate frequent wars over territories. All this will occur in an environment strained by global warming, growing populations and new outbreaks of disease. Imagine what will happen to American cities and suburbs when cheap oil is gone? This crisis will end the high standard of living that people in the West have enjoyed for years, and it will launch a depressing scenario of unfolding catastrophes: the “Long Emergency.”

Even though the oil crisis will lead to new wars, tensions, societal dislocations and conflicts, Americans have failed to grasp its true meaning. This blindness goes beyond denial. These complex problems create too much stress. People cannot comprehend conflicting ideas when they try to make sense of the world. They can’t take the “cognitive dissonance” (to borrow a term from developmental psychology). But recognizing this underlying psychological phenomenon does not eliminate the...