The Predictioneer's Game

Selfishness and Foresight in Game Theory

Selfishness is the key presumption in game theory, and for good reason. People reliably defend their self-interest; true altruism is an anomaly. This presumption of self-centeredness guides the design of mathematical games that reveal probable outcomes from a wide range of circumstances. To predict the outcome of an issue, begin by assessing the motives of the “stakeholders,” the individuals who have an interest in the result, and consider how important the issue is to each person. Knowing how stakeholders will respond to certain facts and beliefs is the first step in accurately predicting their future behavior.

Shaping the future, of course, is more valuable than just predicting it. One effective way to engineer results is to present information that alters other people’s beliefs. A “predictioneer” uses such tools from the field of game theory to predict and engineer the future. “Predictioneering” is useful in all sorts of tasks, from purchasing a car to acquiring a company, addressing environmental problems or studying terrorist threats. The same steps apply, regardless of the situation: After determining the needs of all ...