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Twilight in the Desert
Book

Twilight in the Desert

The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Matthew R. Simmons
Wiley, 2005

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Editorial Rating

9

Qualities

  • Innovative

Recommendation

Author and leading oil expert Matthew R. Simmons departs from other books of the oil doom-and-gloom genre, which usually review peak production formulas, extend them to global oil reserves and posit an inevitable decline. Global oil production, they all warn, must begin to diminish "sooner or later." While indisputably true, such homilies overlook the core question: when? When will the decline actually begin - now or 50 years from now? (As John Maynard Keynes put it darkly, "In the long run, we’re all dead.") Taking quite a different tact, Simmons ignores the bit players and focuses on Saudi Arabia, the world’s petroleum giant. He links historical data with solid information and graphs on oil reserves and production, and adds his informed perspective on how the oil business really works. No wonder the house of Saud reportedly spent an entire year priming its public relations network to defuse this book’s thesis. By sticking to facts and avoiding prognostication, Simmons makes a cogent case that it’s time for the world to start working on "Plan B," that is, what to do once Saudi production declines. getAbstract.com recommends this book to all business readers. As the lifeblood of the global economy, oil is everyone’s business.

Take-Aways

  • Saudi Arabia owns 23% of the world’s oil reserves - more than 262 billion barrels.
  • Its population was six million in the 1970s and will be about 30 million by 2010.
  • Despite its oil revenues, Saudi Arabia runs a budget deficit; as of 2003, it owed $170 billion to other countries and organizations.

About the Author

Energy expert Matthew R. Simmons is the chairman and CEO of an investment bank that specializes in energy industry projects. He is also a member of the National Petroleum Council, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Atlantic Council of the United States.

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