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Why So Many COVID Predictions Were Wrong
Article

Why So Many COVID Predictions Were Wrong

The eviction tsunami never happened. Neither did the “she-cession.” Here are four theories for the failed economic forecasting of the pandemic era.

The Atlantic, 2022


Editorial Rating

7

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Overview
  • Concrete Examples

Recommendation

The onset of COVID-19 in 2020 produced a flood of worst-case economic forecasts: Evictions would mushroom, women would leave the workplace en masse, local government treasuries would empty and the housing market would screech to a halt. But while the worst never happened, being fortunately wrong does not make everything right, according to this intriguing article by journalist Jerusalem Demsas. She outlines how information biases and a mountain of data emerging from a constantly evolving pandemic led to muddied interpretations, glaring inaccuracies, skepticism and bad policies.

Take-Aways

  • The US economy weathered the COVID-19 pandemic well, despite dire prognostications.
  • Prediction errors arose from four sources.
  • Flawed forecasts lead to flawed outcomes.

About the Author

Jerusalem Demsas is a staff writer at The Atlantic.


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