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Brexit: What’s Next?

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Brexit: What’s Next?

The Conference Board,

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Brexit’s consequences will reverberate for years to come.

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The conclusion to Brexit has ushered in a period of geopolitical and socioeconomic uncertainty for the United Kingdom and the European Union. Both will have to reckon with new complexities, particularly in trade. While any number of scenarios is possible, ranging from a political breakdown to newfound excellence, economists Ilaria Maselli and Dana Peterson forecast a UK economy enfeebled not only by Brexit but also the coronavirus, with lackluster GDP enduring perhaps throughout the 2020s.

Summary

The full consequences of Brexit will play out over the long term.

Before Brexit, “four freedoms” – the unfettered movement of goods, services, people and capital – characterized the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. In the final days of 2020, the two parties concluded the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that will govern their relationship from 2021 onward.

The goal of the agreement was to create a framework that ensures fair global trade between the two groups, in which neither’s practices would create unfair advantages. Terms of trade regarding the four freedoms are restricted rather than relaxed, making implementation...

About the Authors

Ilaria Maselli is the senior economist for Europe at the Conference Board, where Dana Peterson serves as chief economist. 

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