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December 2013 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area

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December 2013 Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area

ECB,

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The euro-zone economy shrank in 2013, but a return to modest growth is likely for 2014 and 2015.

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Editorial Rating

7

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  • Analytical
  • Scientific
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Recommendation

The European Central Bank’s number crunchers are a busy bunch; the world hangs on their every word, waiting for a sign that the prolonged stagnation in the euro-zone economy has lifted. In this report, the ECB forecasts a modest return to real GDP growth for 2014 and 2015. This projection is unlikely to set champagne corks popping in Frankfurt, but it marks a welcome change from five years of gloom. getAbstract commends the ECB for its short, albeit technical, prognosis and suggests it as essential reading for all with an interest in European and global economic affairs.

Summary

The European Central Bank predicts a tentative euro-zone recovery in 2014, with the pace of growth gradually accelerating in 2015. Annual real GDP will increase by 1.1% in 2014 and by 1.5% in 2015. This growth will occur as the global economy revives. Forecasts have world GDP rising by 3.9% in 2014 and 4.1% in 2015, as the recovery in the US gathers momentum and global trade volumes climb. Yet the euro zone will benefit less than other trading blocs because several of its trading partners, especially in emerging markets, will encounter a more modest rate of economic growth. Several...

About the Author

Situated in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank is responsible for maintaining the euro’s purchasing power and, thus, price stability in the euro area.

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