Growth in Turbulent Times

Conventional growth models don’t apply in the current environment.

The crisis has rendered moot many companies’ growth predictions: Business growth hinges on bringing in new users, which often happens through the recommendations of existing users. Business leaders translate hypotheses about engagement and corresponding actions into quantified models and run experiments to validate the numbers. Due to the 2020 pandemic, however, these hypotheses have become invalid, as user engagement and company growth no correlate differently. For example, many people might still use travel websites to do research, but page visits may not translate into bookings. On the other hand, a higher percentage of users on collaboration platforms like Zoom may be sending out meeting invites.

For some companies, the quantitative variables have strengthened, and for others, they’ve deteriorated, resulting in headwinds or tailwinds that vary from business category to business category and even from company to company. For those companies experiencing significant benefits or clear disadvantages, the effects are obvious, but those ...