Is Paranoia the Key to Pandemic Preparedness?

Predicting the next disaster is difficult.

In January 2020, global political and financial leaders thought the most imminent threat facing humanity was climate change, even as a novel coronavirus was evolving into a pandemic. Of course, climate change remains a global crisis, but focusing on only one crisis blinds you to others, such as the birth of a deadly pandemic.

No philosophy nor knowledge of history can help people or governments anticipate a future disaster’s nature, aspects or scale. That may be why governments tend to prepare for the disaster that most recently took place or is taking place now – such as climate change – while remaining virtually blind to other threats until a completely new, unexpected disaster emerges.

Governments’ advance preparedness for disaster is limited.

Western nations like the United States were, in principle, prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic – yet they failed to keep it under control. The United...