Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet

The Emergence of “Petrosuperpowers”

The world is engaged in an international power struggle over energy, and the competing national interests of developed and developing nations will eventually result in the emergence of a new world energy order. Rising demand and shrinking resources will build new global alliances, many of which will be dangerous and unstable. Nations that deplete their energy reserves will become less important and will lose power to those that are energy and mineral-rich.

The strongest countries in the new order will not necessarily be the ones with the most powerful militaries. Rather, to develop strong armies, countries will need oil. The U.S. military has become one of the largest consumers of oil in the world. During World War II, it consumed one gallon of oil per soldier per day. During the first Gulf War (1990 to 1991), that amount increased to four gallons. In the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, demand has hit 16 gallons of oil per soldier per day. A 2007 Pentagon study found that an oil shortage could curtail U.S. military operations worldwide.

Both developing and developed nations have huge demands for oil. The U.S. Department...