Risk Intelligence

The Shadow of Uncertainty

Imagine walking through a room where the only source of light is a single lamp. You can see the items near the lamp clearly, and you are certain about what you are seeing. But some objects are in deep shadow. You can’t see them at all, and you know you can’t see them. That, too, is a kind of certainty: You know you don’t know. Most articles in the room stand in varying degrees of shadow. You can’t see them clearly, and how well you think you see them varies, depending on what they are, where they are, who you are and where you are. That’s an analogy for reality – the certainty with which people know things and how accurately they judge what they know.

Certainty is rare. You continually make judgments based on partial information as you evaluate the reliability of those judgments. Accurately assessing your own level of knowledge and acting accordingly is a crucial life skill. That understanding is “risk intelligence.” People with good risk intelligence (as measured by their “risk quotient” or RQ) know how solid their knowledge is – or is not – and feel appropriately confident. People with poor risk intelligence aren’t clear about their comprehension...