Sources of Power

“Decisions and Models of Decision Making”

Most people make decisions badly. However, firefighters, military leaders and chess masters, for instance, make critical decisions under extreme pressure every day. If they are wrong, the least they can lose is a career-defining game: the most is someone’s life. These experts reach their decisions in “high stakes,” time-pressured situations. They must act despite scarce information, ambiguous objectives and ill-defined methods. Often they must “juggle complex goals,” recognize relationships and perceive differences while immersed in dynamic circumstances that change second by second. Yet these experts routinely make good decisions. How are they able to think through the issues, choose among options and direct their will while avoiding the paralysis of self-doubt?

They eschew the “rational choice strategy” taught in many business schools. In that model, you identify and evaluate your options, weigh different aspects, produce ratings and choose the alternative that scores the most points. But decision-making pros don’t use any aspect of this model. When asked, many experts couldn’t remember making decisions or even considering...