The Age of Spiritual Machines

New Intelligence

Given the rapid increase in computing speed and processing, computer intelligence will equal and then surpass human intelligence in the 21st century. During their early development in the mid-20th century, computers doubled in speed every three years. By the 1950s and 1960s, their speed doubled every two years, and now their speed doubles every 12 months. By 2020, if speeds continue to increase at this rate, computers will have the memory capacity and computing speed of human beings.

However, memory and speed are not enough. The organization and content of the software that provides intelligence also matters. One way to achieve perfect software may involve using reverse engineering to scan a human brain - which will be possible early this century - and to copy its neural circuitry into a neural computer, which simulates human neurons.

Once this highly complex organizational structure becomes possible, computers will be able to mimic many human behaviors. They will be able to read and understand what they have read. They will be able to move into the physical world, access information and share knowledge with each other. Once computers achieve...