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The New Economics of Fertility

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The New Economics of Fertility

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The historically negative relationship between national fertility rates and incomes is changing.

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Fertility rates decline – so the thinking once went – as incomes rise: Women who enter the workforce tend to have fewer children, as do families in wealthy countries. But the scenario today is different. This intriguing research study by economists Matthias Doepke, Anne Hannusch, Fabian Kindermann and Michèle Tertilt notes that fertility levels are increasing as gender roles converge, support programs proliferate and social taboos lessen. This demographic shift also carries important social policy implications for economic development around the world.

Summary

After a century of decline, fertility rates in the developed world remain extremely low.

A growing elderly population in high-income countries stems from a decline in fertility rates. For instance, in Germany, Spain, Italy and Japan, women bear, on average, fewer than two children each, well short of the population replacement rate of slightly more than two offspring.

Economists have offered up two explanations for this demographic downturn: The first, a “quantity-quality trade-off,” posits that, as incomes increase, parents invest more in the quality of their children’s lives, and family size shrinks. The second, the “opportunity cost of...

About the Authors

Matthias Doepke is a professor of economics at Northwestern University. Michele Tertilt is a professor of economics at the University of Mannheim, where Anne Hannusch is an assistant professor. Fabian Kindermann is a professor of economics at the University of Regensburg.

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