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The Regulation and Value of Prediction Markets
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The Regulation and Value of Prediction Markets

Adam Ozimek
Mercatus Center, 2014
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Editorial Rating

8

Qualities

  • Innovative
  • Eye Opening
  • Overview

Recommendation

Not everyone would be comfortable betting on a terrorist attack occurring by year-end, but, undoubtedly, better forecasts for such catastrophes could save lives. While many may be skeptical, prediction markets offer one of the best ways to benefit from the wisdom of crowds, says economist Adam Ozimek. getAbstract recommends this noteworthy overview of the state of US prediction markets and the regulatory obstacles they face.

Take-Aways

  • Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts that offer payouts based on future outcomes.
  • These markets are an efficient way of amassing existing information and opinions on upcoming events. They quickly integrate new data and resist manipulation and bias.
  • Prediction markets’ forecasting ability often trumps that of sophisticated research tools, and companies such as General Electric, Microsoft, Arcelor Mittal and Siemens have all successfully used prediction markets.

About the Author

Adam Ozimek is director of research and senior economist at Econsult Solutions, Inc.

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