The Trillion Dollar Meltdown

Two Roads and a Choice

In June 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds ran into trouble after a downgrade. The firm had to pay billions to assume the hedge funds’ mortgage-backed securities holdings. Shortly, the contagion spread as banks worldwide took hefty write-offs. Central banks in North America and Europe opened the money spigot, to little avail. Even experts seemed to have no way of predicting how far the value of complex, mortgage-backed securities could fall – and how much damage their collapse would cause throughout the financial system. History marked out two roads and gave policy makers a choice. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker took the first road in the late 1970s and early 1980s when he courageously, forthrightly grappled with the challenge of wringing inflation out of the U.S. economy. He restored confidence in America’s financial institutions. Japan took the second road after the collapse of its 1980s bubble. Japan did not admit its problems or deal with them straightforwardly. Instead, it concealed the problems, avoided responsibility and failed to take its medicine. As a result, Japan’s financial sickness lingered for a long time. Indeed, its financial...