Thinking in Time

Leaders should study history before making major decisions.

The United States congratulates itself for improvising solutions to problems and innovating in untested realms. Having invented federalism, devised mass production and built the first atomic bomb, the US government has followed that inventive spirit in diplomatic and domestic spheres, but with sometimes unwanted results. Ignorance of history dooms society to repeat it and, too often, American policymakers have let faith – instead of informed common sense or sound judgement – guide their choices. As with sex education – wherein learning about the risks won’t stop you from trying it – you always make better choices when you gather information before you act.

History can help decision makers avoid situations like the 1961 Bay of Pigs fiasco which left President John F. Kennedy asking, “How could I have been so stupid?” Using investigative templates fueled by examples helps policymakers make better decisions. Those who “think in time” sharpen their forecasting skills, because they see that decisions taken lightly can exact a disastrous...