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A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
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A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System

Stephen Miran
Hudson Bay Capital, 2024
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Editorial Rating

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Qualities

  • Controversial
  • Overview
  • For Experts

Recommendation

In the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff scheme, no other paper has been quoted as often as strategist Stephen Miran’s. Written in November 2024, it presents a detailed examination of potential changes to the global trading system, focusing on tariffs, currency policy, and the dynamics of reserve assets. Miran avers that his research is not to champion policy but to point out how Trump administration proposals could unfold. Regardless of its controversial topic, his guide provides alternative insights for everyone analyzing the implications of future shifts in US trade and financial policy.

Summary

Persistent US dollar overvaluation undermines American manufacturing and concentrates economic harm.

One of the crucial problems facing the US economy is the long-term overvaluation of the US dollar, which makes American goods more expensive overseas and foreign goods cheaper in the United States, damaging domestic manufacturing. Trade shocks such as the rise of China caused millions of US job losses, especially in industrial towns where few alternative employment opportunities existed. This concentrated disruption weakened entire communities and created ripple effects, from crumbling infrastructure to social challenges.

As national security threats grow, maintaining a strong domestic industrial base is essential. A government focused on restoring economic and military strength views the health of manufacturing as critical to national resilience.

The US dollar’s reserve currency role creates structural imbalances in trade and borrowing.

The role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency brings both benefits and burdens. High...

About the Author

Stephen Miran is a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and former senior economic adviser at the US Department of the Treasury.

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