Cambridge Business Association
What the Shift to Zero-Emission Vehicles Means for Commercial Transportation
Article

What the Shift to Zero-Emission Vehicles Means for Commercial Transportation

Peter Wiedenhoff, Anna Avdeitchikova, Charlie Davis, Gang Xu, Andreas Girisch and Tobias Glas
Boston Consulting Group, 2022
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Gottlieb Daimler created the first truck, and given its combustion engine, he dubbed it (appropriately) “the Phoenix.” That was in 1896. Now, the internal combustion engine is out and the green powertrains of the future will rise from the ashes. This report from the Boston Consulting Group describes how vehicle manufacturers can prosper amid growing environmental regulations and economic pressures.

Summary

Regulatory and economic forces will hasten an emission-free future for commercial transportation.

First, the COVID-19 pandemic, then, the semiconductor shortage. It’s been a wild ride for commercial vehicle supply and demand. The industry may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2025, but projections suggest that by 2030, 3.3 million units will sell globally each year. China will be a major market, with sales of 1.1 million, followed by the United States at 500,000 and Europe at 400,000. The market will change markedly in the next five or 10 years, however, mostly because it will swerve toward an emissions-free future.

If you manage a fleet or manufacture medium and heavy-duty vehicles, you’ve got a challenge ahead of you. You’ll have to invest in emission-free technology while also maintaining profits. The emissions-free future will be driven by regulatory demands, like 2019’s European Green Deal, and by economic concerns. With battery prices coming down, the total cost of electric...

About the Authors

Peter Wiedenhoff, Anna Avdeitchikova, Charlie Davis, Gang Xu, Andreas Girisch and Tobias Glas are professionals with the Boston Consulting Group.

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